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Another accolade for Mike Trout?
By: Aidan Flynn
    

     Unlike the speed needed in center or a strong arm in right, left field is usually considered the easiest outfield position to field, and thus often is  littered with talented hitters that just aren't up to snuff defensively. However nowadays, left field is not just reserved for large sluggers, as numerous athletes have begun to call left field their positional home; although admittedly these players usually play left in deference to even more athletic  center fielder (something we will later see in our rankings). For some, this  athletic ability has made them bona-fide stars, capable of not only hitting a  baseball a long way, but also making an impact on defense as well. The talent  crop of left fielders right now is truly amazing and this list was extremely  difficult to select because of so many compelling candidates. With that being said, on to the fifth best left fielder in the game today...


5. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
             
      Faced with arguably the highest expectations for any player in big league  history, Harper, at the tender age of 19, matched and surpassed those expectations in his rookie season. Harper, after underwhelming stays in AA Hagerstown and AAA Syracuse was called up for good on April 28, and never looked back. He hit .270/.340/.477 and smashed 22 home runs en route to winning the 2012 NL Rookie of the Year. Like his ROY counterpart in the American League, Harper possesses a wide range of skills that should continue to make him successful in the coming years. He has burgeoning power (57 XBH), a healthy approach at the plate (9.4 BB%), and strong defensive skills (14 DRS, 10 runs above average ). Harper is still coming into his own as a player, and at 20 years old, is still way ahead of the learning curve compared to his comparatively aged peers. After spending much of 2012 in center and right field, the Nationals' offseason acquisition of Denard Span will move Harper to left, thus his appearance in these rankings. At the heels of a 5 win professional debut, Harper could once again be around that number in 2013 as he continues to grow and mature as a player. 
 
4. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
             
      Drafted out of Nebraska as a third baseman, Gordon was immediately hailed as the next George Brett when the Royals selected him second overall in 2005. Blessed with plus-plus power and gifted line drive stroke, Gordon was the can't miss prospect of his time. But cursed as only a Royal would have it, Gordon fell flat on his face, and was demoted twice to AAA before resurfacing with the big league club as a left fielder. Since that positional change, Gordon experienced a revival of sorts, becoming a legitimate star caliber player. Although never being very good defensively at third, Gordon has evolved into one of the best defensive left fielders in the game with 44 DRS and Gold Gloves in each of the  past two years. Much of his defensive prowess comes courtesy of his rifle for an arm, throwing out the most base runners among outfielders the past two seasons. 
          
     Offensively, Gordon is no slouch either, despite not quite living up to enormous potential out of college. He has the classic underappreciated offensive skillset, revolved around taking plenty of walks and hitting plenty of doubles (lead all of baseball with 51 2Bs in 2012). One cause for concern is whether or not Gordon and his elevated BABIPs are for real or not. League average BABIP is around .300, although higher totals can be seen with fast players (Ichiro) or those that hit a ton of line drives (Miguel Cabrera). Gordon's line drive stroke could explain his extremely high BABIPs of the past two seasons (.358 and .356, respectively), but it remains unlikely that these numbers are sustainable. Even if Gordon were to see his batting average decline due to a BABIP regression, he still has the tools to be a very productive player, and one very capable of being a 5+ win player in 2013. 
 
3. Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals

     One of the most gifted offensive talents in the game, Holliday was once again a key component in the middle of the best NL offense in 2012. In 2012, he hit .295/.379/.497 with 27 home runs, a 138 OPS+, and 102 runs batted in. Holliday's offensive consistency is really quite remarkable; since 2006 (first full season) Holliday has averaged 28 home runs, 104 RBI, a 143 OPS+, and a .316/.393/.544 triple slash line. Predictably, I would expect Holliday to be around those numbers once again in 2013. In contrast to his natural hitting  ability, Holliday is quite unnatural in the outfield. He is a career -10 defender and was -6 runs last year alone, and just lacks the range necessary to be even an average defender. If there is a positive from Holliday's defensive game, it comes from his strong arm, responsible for an average of six outfield assists per year. Holliday is the prototypical left fielder; a masher first, and defender second. Although it is always more favorable to have a more balanced
game, Holliday makes it work due to his excellent offensive skills and consistency and should once again be around five wins in 2013.
 
2. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
             
      Braun entered the 2012 season amidst a cloud of controversy regarding his positive steroid test and subsequent successful appeal. With fans and baseball enthusiasts seriously questioning the validity of his MVP-winning 2011, Braun answered with an equally strong 2012 season. In fact, Braun posted nearly identical offensive numbers with the only noticeable difference in his home run total (41 in 2012 to 33 in 2011). Comparatively, Braun hit .319/.391/.595 with an OPS+ of 159 last year in contrast to his .332/.397/.597 and 166 OPS+ in 2011. What is especially exciting for a player like Braun is seeing how he has evolved and matured as a player since first arriving to the big league stage. This is evidenced in his walk rate (5.9% in 2007 to 9.3% in 2012), K rate (22.8% to 18.9%) and his still improving power (career high in home runs in 2012). Clearly, Braun has matured as a hitter and his overall offensive skillset is among the Major League elite. 
             
      Also, unlike most sluggers, Braun has a presence of speed in his game. Despite not having the reputation as a burner, Braun has developed an innate ability to steal bases, swiping at least 30 bases in each of the past two seasons. This added facet to his game is just another way in which Braun can impact games. In addition, Braun has grown as a defender as well. After playing out his rookie season at the hot corner (where he was absolutely atrocious; league-leading 26 errors, -3.0 dWAR), Braun has transitioned nicely to left where he has posted positive DRS numbers in each of the last three seasons. Braun's evolution from slugger to all-around machine has been phenomenal as he has undoubtedly cemented himself as one of the game's very best. Given Braun's consistency and overall track record, he could very easily be in the MVP race again with a 7+ win season. When first working on these positional rankings, Braun had been ranked as the unanimous best player at his position. However, a recent position switch by an even greater player caused Braun to be bumped from top positional honors.

1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
             
      I'm just going to go right out and say it: I think Trout is the best player in baseball and will be for years to come. I realize he's 21; I realize he's only had one full season; I realize he wasn't even the best player in his league (or at least according to a bunch of obsolete writers). I don't care. No player in the sport today has more impact on a game than Trout. He is the embodiment of a five tool talent and can truly do it all. 
            
      To those that may be surprised to see Trout's name in left field after  playing much of his rookie campaign in center, get used to it. Angels management announced earlier this offseason that Trout will shift to left in deference to defensive whiz Peter Bourjos, who equals, if not outright surpasses, Trout's defensive talents. This is not so much as a knock on Trout as  it is extremely high praise for Bourjos, who has put up some of the best defensive metrics  of all-time. Even with Trout saving 21 runs and having a 2.1 dWAR last year, the decision to move him to left is certainly justifiable with Bourjos' presence in center and could actually have a long term beneficial impact on Trout's career. A move to left earlier in his career could save Trout some of the wear and tear that comes with the territory in center, and thus keep his promising talents on the field more often. 
         
      As previously mentioned and as you undoubtedly already know, Trout's on-field success is not limited to the grass. Trout was one of the best hitters in 2012 and one could even reasonably make the case that his offensive contributions were greater than that of Triple Crown champ Miguel Cabrera. He was that good. He hit for average (.326), he got on base (.399), and hit for power, evidenced by his 30 home runs and .564 slugging percentage. Limitations of the RBI statistic aside, Trout drove in an impressive 83 runs; something of which I find all the more impressive considering where he bats in the lineup and the fact that he missed 20 games while destroying Triple-A pitching. Furthermore, he did most of this damage playing in pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium, as seen in his league leading OPS+ of 171, a statistic that accounts for these ballpark effects. 
             
      In addition to Trout's natural hitting ability, he can make numerous offensive contributions with his legs. The old saying goes "speed kills," and Mike Trout certainly lives up to that statement by killing other teams on the bases.  In 2012, Trout used his speed to steal a league-leading 49 bases. What makes this even more impressive is Trout's extreme efficiency on the bases; he had a 91% success rate, which was good enough for third among players with at least 30 steals. Also, Trout's speed and instincts allowed him to be the Major League leader in the Ultimate Base Running statistic, which valued his baserunning at an incredible 12 runs! 
 
      Last year, Trout was the game's best player, compiling a mind-numbing 10.7 win season. To put that in perspective, only thirteen players have ever reached this total. Their names: Ruth, Bonds, Hornsby, Yastrzemski, Gehrig, Ripken, Wagner, Cobb, Mantle, Mays, Morgan, Williams, and Musial. These are the all-time greats of the game we are talking about, and Trout's 2012 is firmly in their company. Although this certainly underscores the greatness in his rookie campaign, this forebodes almost certain regression; there literally is nowhere to go but down for him. If there is a red flag in Trout's game, it is that he had a ridiculous .383 BABIP. This number is nearly impossible to sustain, even with Trout's speed skillset and high BABIP track record. It is very plausible for Trout to lose 30 points of that BABIP and instead of being a .330 hitter, he would be closer to a .300 hitter. But then again, with another year of experience under his belt and the fact that he's Mike Freakin' Trout, maybe he will exceed his already lofty expectations. Regardless, Trout is an unbelievable, once-in-generation talent and player where all the superlatives truly do apply. When 2013 is all said and done, I see Trout completing another MVP-esque season with a 8+ win season.

For those that might have forgotten Trout's greatness, I hope the .gif below refreshes your memory

Honorable Mention
Yoenis Cespedes, Oakland A's
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
Josh Willingham, Minnesota Twins
Melky Cabrera, Toronto Blue Jays
 
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                Shortstop is without question one of the most important positions on the diamond.  In the 1990s and early 2000s, we witnessed a tremendous crop of shortstop that were never-before-seen offensive forces.  Guys like Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Barry Larkin, Derek Jeter, and Cal Ripkin Jr were stars in the league at shortstop because of this offensive prowess.  Nowadays, that offensive power has shifted back to the other 3 infield positions.  A-Rod was moved to shortstop and Derek Jeter is at the back end of his career. Hanley Ramirez is another guy who was moved from shortstop to third base. Many of these moves were based on having other guys to man shortstop already; however teams now are looking for a great defender with speed and range to play the shortstop position on an everyday basis, even while sacrificing the offensive firepower.  There are some great looking young shortstops that have either already arrived in the show, or will be there very soon.  Established guys like Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro have already produced all-star caliber seasons. On the farm, top prospects Jurickson Profar, Xander Bogaerts, and Francisco Lindor should be names we will be hearing about for a long time to come.  Overall, the future of shortstop looks bright, possibly once again providing us with a golden age at the position.

5. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees

     Derek Jeter will go down as not only one of the greatest Yankees ever, but one of the greatest players in history.  The Yankee captain will eventually add his number 2 to the already long list of Yankee retired numbers with his career .313/.382/.448 slash line and five world championships. Derek is coming off a tremendous 2012 with his bat, hitting .316/.362/.429 with a 114 OPS+ and notching his 8th career 200+ hit season.  His bat should be productive again in 2013; however his age and defensive abilities are what have hurt Jeter.  Jeter will be 39 this June, and he has only saved a positive number of runs one time in his 18 year career.  His 9 career gold gloves may be a bit misleading, as Jeter has saved an atrocious -142 runs for his entire career.  His defense again will haunt him in 2013, but his bat is good enough to make him a top 5 shortstop for 2013 and I would expect around a 3 win season from Jeter. 

4. Jose Reyes, Toronto Blue Jays

      After signing a big 6-year contract with the new-look Miami Marlins in the 2011 offseason, Reyes was quickly shipped off to Toronto in a major blockbuster trade after a dismal season for the 2012 Marlins.  North of the border, Reyes will provide a huge spark in a lineup that already includes a lot of firepower.  Reyes, just one year removed from a batting title, had another good season offensively.  He batted .287/.347/.433 in 2012 with an OPS+ of 111.  Along with hitting for a high average and getting on base at a solid rate, Reyes brings 40+ stolen base potential, having done so 5 times in his career, including 2012.  Despite his good speed, Reyes struggles on the defensive side of the ball.  He has not saved a positive number of runs since 2007 and -18 DRS for his 10 year big league career.  He has also committed at least 15 errors in each of his past 3 years.  Regardless, Jose was a 2.8 win player in 2012 and I look for him to be around 3 or 3.5 in 2013. 

3. Ian Desmond , Washington Nationals

      The Nationals' 26 year old shortstop broke out in a big way for the National League East champions in 2012.  He batted .292/.335/.511 with an OPS+ of 126.  His power stood out as he blasted 25 big flies while playing in just 130 games.  He also brought the speed factor into his game while stealing 21 bases in 27 attempts (78%).  It is fair to say Desmond did a little bit of everything offensively in 2012 and we should expect more of the same in 2012 as he enters his age 27 season. Defensively, Desmond saved -6 runs at shortstop and is at -19 for his career.  In spite of his defensive shortcomings, Ian should be about a 3.5 win player in 2013. 

2. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay Rays

      Ben Zobrist has been a super utility man throughout the majority of his career.  However, with the Rays plans to keep him as a primary shortstop in 2013, Zobrist fits into to the second spot on our shortstops list.  Zobrist has been nothing but consistent throughout the past 4 seasons at the “Trop.”  He’s played in at least 151 games in each of those years.  Although he does not hit for a particularly high batting average (.260 career), Zobrist is able to be a very productive offensive player.  He has a career .354 OBP and had a .377 OBP in 2012.  This is a result of his great patience at the plate as he has walked at least 91 times in 3 of his past 4 seasons.  He also hits for decent power, coming off a year in which he slugged .471.  He has also mashed at least 20 home runs in 3 of his last 4 seasons.  Stealing bases is not a huge part of his game although he has been able to swipe at least 14 in each of his last 4 seasons.  Defensively, Zobrist has been fantastic no matter where he plays as he has saved 60 runs over his 7 year career.  Ben has very impressively been able to compile a WAR of at least 5.5 in 3 of his last 4 seasons and has even reached 8 in 2 of them.  Any man who can be an 8 win player should be considered for MVP because of the overall value he brings.  Zobrist just simply makes the Tampa Bay Rays a MUCH better ball club than what they would be without him.  Look for Zobrist to be a 5-6 win player again in 2013. 

1. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies

      Despite playing in just 47 games in 2012, “Tulo” has proven he is absolutely the best overall shortstop in all of baseball.  With Tulowitzki having played full seasons in 4 of his last 5 seasons before 2012, we will mainly focus on his production before last year. Expecting full health for 2013, it is very reasonable to expect the type of numbers he put up before his injury because he has been so consistent.  The 28-year old had an OPS+ of at least 130 each year from 2009-2011.  In those seasons, he never hit below .297, never had an OBP of under .372, and never slugged less than .544.  He also hit at least 30 home runs in 2 of those 3 years.  Speed wise, Tulo was able to swipe 20 bags in 2009, but that number dropped to just 9 in 2011.  After his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2007 at the age of 22, Tulowitzki has not disappointed.  Along with his tremendous offensive production, Troy is one of the best defenders in the game.  He saved a whopping 31 runs during his rookie year, and taking away his injury plagued 2012, has never saved a negative number of runs and is at 68 for his career.  Tulo is without a doubt a superstar at shortstop. He has been a 6 win player 4 times in his career, and I would expect that number to be the same in 2013.  

By: Nick Rabasco


 
12/4: Deacon White, a 2013 member of the Baseball Hall of Fame (selected by the Pre-Integration Committee that examined candidates from 1869-1947), played catcher without the use of a mask or glove
12/5: O-Swing% gauges the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside of the strike zone. The top pitcher at having batters chase balls was soft tossing lefty, Bruce Chen at 35.2% (.2% higher than Justin Verlander).
12/6: Sammy Sosa hit sixty or more home runs on three separate occasions. However, during those years, he never once lead the league (McGwire hit more in 1998, 1999 and Bonds hit more in 2001)
12/7: Lou Gehrig was the first player to have his number retired
12/9: During 2012, reliever Koji Uehara walked only three batters. On April 21 alone, Alfredo Aceves walked four batters without retiring a single hitter.
12/10: In 1930, Lefty Grove lead the Majors in wins (28) and saves (9)
12/11: Larry Hesterfer is the only MLBer to hit into a triple play in his first major league at bat
12/12: In 1987, Nolan Ryan led the NL in ERA (2.76), but had an 8-16 record with the second most losses in baseball
12/13: In 2012, the San Francisco Giants only hit 103 home runs, which ranked last in Major League Baseball. The Giants then went on to win the World Series
12/14: Pete Rose, the all-time hits leader, began his career by going 0-11 in the Majors
12/17: Germany Schaefer is the only player in major league history to steal the same base twice in one inning without reaching base a second time. In 1920, it was legal to steal bases in reverse order (i.e. steal first base from second). During the September 4th, 1908, game between the Tigers and Cleveland Indians, Schaefer was on first and a teammate was on third. The Tigers wanted to do a double steal -- Schaefer would break for second, and, when the Indians tried to throw him out, his teammate would steal home. But when Schaefer broke for second, the Indians' catcher didn't make the throw, so Schaefer stole the base without the run scoring. That wasn't the plan, so, on the next pitch, he broke back for first... and successfully stole it without a throw. Then, on the following pitch, he broke for second AGAIN, to try to make the double steal work... but again, the Indians didn't throw
12/18: Eddie Matthews is the only Brave to play for the club when it was in Boston, Milwaukee, and Atlanta
12/19: Ryne Sandberg’s final game at Wrigley Field was also Harry Caray’s  final performance of “Take Me Out to the Ball Game” at Wrigley
12/20: Right-handed pitcher Don Sutton has the most plate appearances without hitting a home run with 1,559
12/21: Sam Crawford (1899-1917) holds the record for most career inside-the-park home runs with 51
12/24: Pud Galvin (played from 1875-1892) was the first player to use performance-enhancing drugs. In 1889, he openly used an elixir containing monkey testorone. Ironically enough, Galvin was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1965
12/25: Lou Gehrig was the first athlete to appear on the Wheaties box
12/26: Rick Wise is the only player to hit two home runs while throwing a no-hitter; truly one of the all-time great single game performances
12/27: Tim Salmon has hit the most home runs without ever making an All-Star team (299 home runs)
12/28: Sam Crawford (1899-1917) holds the record for most career inside-the-park home runs with 51
12/31: In 1999, Rafael Palmeiro won the Gold Glove despite only playing 28 games at first base
 
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Jack Morris falls short on my ballot
 By: Aidan Flynn          

          Yesterday, I unveiled my thoughts and hypothetical vote on this year's Hall of Fame class. Once again, I do not think there is necessarily a wrong way of going about this vote. However, I do think people need to realize that cheating is not some new trend in baseball, and has literally been going on for hundreds of years. I respect the decisions made by the hundreds of people who vote on this, but any explanation of being a moral gatekeeper is one I simply do not understand. Regardless, I have confidence in my selections and people can say what they will about them. Yet, while I think I selected deserving candidates,  there were many strong cases from players who did not make my top nine. Below are some of my snubs, per say, for this year's Hall class. Some decisions were easy, some were difficult, and if there is any player (Dale Murphy, Bernie Williams, etc) not listed below and you would like an explanation, I would be more than happy to justify my thinking. Once more, I will be using Jay Jaffe's excellent JAWS statistic that compares players to their already enshrined Hall of Fame peers. This was an excellent tool, which along with others, helped me formulate decisions on my Hall of Fame ballot. Below is a quick review on the JAWS statistic, followed by my Hall of Fame slights. 

            JAWS: The Jaffe WAR Score System was developed by Sports Illustrated's Jay Jaffe as a measure of a player's Hall of Fame worthiness. A JAWS score is calculated from taking the players' career WAR averaged out with their seven-year peak (seven best seasons, regardless if they were continuous or not). It serves as a good means to judge how a player stacks up to his Hall of Fame brethren and whether or not they are deserving of a plaque in Cooperstown. For additional JAWS information, click on the link above

So now, here are those that fell short of my HOF vote (from easiest decision to hardest):

        Jack Morris: Despite the mounting tidal wave of support in favor of Morris' candidacy, Jack Morris is not a Hall of Famer in my mind. To be honest, it is not even that tough of a decision. The 3.90 ERA, barely above-average ERA+ (105), the lack of a statistical peak, Morris just does not cut it. The best thing going for Morris is his longevity and innings eating capabilities (3824 innings) but there are plenty of other, more successful pitchers with nearly identical innings pitched. No one is clamoring for Jerry Koosman or Dennis Martinez's induction, despite both having thrown more innings and having better ERA+ (106 and 110, respectively) than  Morris. Also, Morris falls short in the traditional measures of 300 wins (254 career victories) and winning a Cy Young (best finish was 3rd), in which both puzzle me as to why he is getting as much support from the mainstream media as he is. In addition, for someone with the reputation of being a big game pitcher, Morris was very inconsistent during his postseason tenure. While he was lights out in 1984 and 1991 (sub 2.00 ERA in both postseasons), he had a couple of clunkers in 1987 and 1992 (6.75 ERA or greater in both series). All together, he finished his postseason career with a mediocre 3.80 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Morris falls 20 WAR short of the starting pitcher JAWS average, and after looking at the all of the evidence, he falls well short of my hypothetical HOF vote. 

        Sammy Sosa: First question obviously is, "If you voted for Bonds and Clemens, why not Sosa?" Although Sosa definitely had the peak of a Hall of Famer, Sosa fails to get my vote for several reasons. First, Sosa simply does not meet the Hall of Fame standards set by the JAWS statistic. Sosa falls 7 WAR short of the average Hall of Fame right fielder. Basically, Sosa would lower the standards of the Hall for right fielders if he were to get elected and essentially represents a borderline candidate. While I expressed that I would vote for certain players with steroid ties, Sosa's already borderline case definitely is not helped by being an alleged juicer. Furthermore, Sosa was essentially a one-dimensional slugger during his peak years. He hit a lot of home runs and struck out a ton. For much of his career he was Adam Dunn, just without the walks and with better power numbers. Nobody is confusing Adam Dunn for a Hall of Famer and while Sosa certainly is better than "The Donkey," he is not a Hall of Famer either.

        Mark McGwire/Rafael Palmeiro: I am lumping McGwire and Palmeiro together because there cases are fairly similar. Both offense first players with clear evidence linking them to steroid use; McGwire via personal confession and Palmeiro via a positive test in 2005, just two weeks after recording his 3,000 hit. They are also similar in that both fall short of the JAWS standard for first baseman. The average Hall of Fame first basemen has a JAWS of 51.5 with Palmeiro just below the standard at 51.3 and McGwire at 49.4. Once again, both of these players have borderline cases to being HOFers and with direct evidence linking them to steroids, that clinches them to being off my ballot

        Kenny Lofton: One of the more underrated players of his generation, Lofton stole bases at a high clip (80% success rate), was an excellent tablesetter (.372 OBP), and played strong defense at an up-the-middle position (four gold gloves, 115 runs above average). However, Lofton's lack of a true peak and his lackluster postseason showing (.247/.315/.352) both hurt his borderline case, causing him to fall short of my vote.

        Larry Walker: Unlike the previously mentioned borderline candidates, Walker is actually above the standard for Hall of Famers at his position. Walker certainly had the peak (43.1 WAR, three batting titles, 1997 MVP), but the era and ballpark in which he played (steroid era and pre-humidor Coors Field) absolutely supported some of the insane numbers he put up in the late '90s. I understand there was more to Walker's game than just hitting (7 Gold Gloves, 230 SBs) and he had some very productive seasons in Montreal, but I really question how much of his monster seasons were as a result of playing in Coors. He's close but for now, Walker does not get my vote.


 
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Does Barry Bonds deserve HOF justice even with his alleged steroid abuse?
  BY: AIDAN FLYNN

            The mission statement of the National Baseball Hall of Fame reads "Preserving History, Honoring Excellence, and Connecting Generations." Since its inception in 1936, the Hall of Fame has generally received the reputation of upholding these duties while maintaining its integrity as both an honor and museum. This year's class is the first to truly challenge this longstanding reputation with the introduction of all-time greats Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Sammy Sosa to the ballot. Under normal circumstances, this ballot would be received with unparalleled interest and significance, not because of any moral wrongdoings, but because of the legitimate greatness of the players involved. The all-time home run king with an unprecedented 7 MVPs. A 354 game winner with a record 7 Cy Youngs. The only player in Major League history to hit sixty home runs an incredible three times. Under normal circumstances, there would be little doubt to greatness that would be honored in a quiet upstate New York town in late July.

            However, as you well know, this ballot does not follow the same rules as ones in years past. The Steroid Era that consumed much of the game in the late '90s is once again rearing its ugly head in the form of the suspicious acts committed by Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa. Although the topic of steroids and the Hall of Fame is not a new topic (see Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro), this year represents a complex dilemma with so many different aspects to it.  One such aspect is the fact that little tangible evidence directly implicates the aforementioned cases of Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa as well as first-time ballot mate Mike Piazza. Even evidence that is present comes from untrustworthy and discredited eye-witness accounts or is just based on visible changes in the physique of these players (see Bonds' transformation above). In addition, these players were allegedly using during a time in which drug and PED abuse was rampant. I would be lying to say or think that everybody was using during this time period but going by numerous reports, it was pretty clear that a decent amount of players were indeed using. Lastly, this ballot simply is different because of the names headlining the list, especially Bonds and Clemens. Between the two of them, reasonable cases could be made that they are the greatest hitter and pitcher of all-time, respectively. To some, not honoring this greatness, regardless of their transgressions, would be a failure for the Hall to "Preserve History, Honor Excellence, and Connect Generations."

            Since its birth shortly after the Civil War, baseball has been ingrained as America's Pastime. As society is seemingly ever changing, ever evolving, baseball remains the constant in the everyman's life. Baseball is what connects generations, families, and us as a country to our storied past and history. The game remains nine innings, with three outs to each half-inning. It remains ninety feet to each base and still is played with a stick and a ball. These enduring qualities and traditions are what has caused baseball to leave such an indelible mark on this country's heart and soul. As football continues its crusade toward the ubiquitous process of player pampering (consequently stripping the game of what made it so popular), baseball's most radical changes have been an extra hitter and a tiny increase in technology. So much of the game remains the same from when Alexander Cartwright wrote up its first rules in 1845. Which should make it no surprise then, that cheating isn't some new fad to the game either. The first documented use of performance-enhancing drugs was in 1889! with Pud Galvin openly admitting and boasting to his monkey testosterone usage. Of course, it was only fitting that Galvin, a 365 game winner, would later be inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1965. Hall of Famer Whitey Ford, ace of the perennial Yankee powerhouses of the '50s and '60s was quoted as saying:

"I didn't begin cheating until late in my career, when I needed something to help me survive. I didn't cheat when I won the twenty-five games in 1961. I don't want anybody to get any ideas and take my Cy Young Award away. And I didn't cheat in 1963 when I won twenty-four games. Well, maybe a little"

Hall of Fame manager Leo Durocher also was quite open in regards to his law-breaking:

" I believe in rules. Sure I do. If there weren't any rules, how could you break them?"

"Win any way you can as long as you can get away with it."

            Still not enough? How about the fact that Gaylord Perry carved an entire Hall of Fame career off the illegal "spitball" pitch, in which he would doctor the baseball in order to give the ball unnatural movement? Even after being caught red-handed by umpires during an August game in 1982, the writers eventually enshrined him as one of Cooperstown's immortals. Perhaps Willie Mays wasn't a cheater despite being renowned for sign-stealing and using it to his advantage. Perhaps it was okay to cheat for George Brett because of his hilarious tirade following his ejection for too much pine tar. I am not saying that none of these players belong in the Hall, but clearly, cheating has been in baseball as long as the game itself.

            In my opinion, it would just be flat-out hypocritical for us to give a damn now about cheaters in the game, especially now that the writers voting on this were the very ones reporting in the very same locker rooms in which these players were using. These very reporters and writers, the ones who happened to turn a blind eye to steroids when they were selling papers and bestselling books, are now deciding to be the morality police? I am just continually stunned by these media double-standards. Now, that is not to say that I am condoning the actions of these players and it was something I legitimately took into account for my hypothetical ballot. I hate awarding players for something they more than likely do not deserve, especially considering all the work I put into studying, training, etc to better myself as a student, athlete, and individual. However, I also believe in trying to gain an advantage at something so that as an individual, you can best set up yourself and your family for life, even with the risk considered. Considering the fact that these players were not tested or even questioned about drug abuse during the '90s, why would what they were doing be considered wrong at the time?

            One more thing about baseball is that it is often referred as a direct reflection of American society. If we truly look at baseball as a mirror, is it really too far off of where we stand as a society? Instead of wondering what influence these players have on society, maybe we should look in the mirror and realize our own faults before criticizing someone else's. The influence that these PED users have on future generations really is not any different than the ones we as a society. I just don't think arguments like this are legitimate roadblocks to each candidcacy.

            All things considered, I still honestly do not think there is a right or wrong choice in regards to this Hall of Fame vote. Some people will value some things more than others and there is nothing wrong with that. I just think people need to realize that it is not as cut and dry, (clean or dirty) as it may first seem. Anyhow, after reviewing all of the evidence, below is my ballot, with a brief introduction of JAWS, a statistic necessary to understanding some of my HOF arguments. 

JAWS: The Jaffe WAR Score System was developed by Sports Illustrated's Jay Jaffe as a measure of a player's Hall of Fame worthiness. A JAWS score is calculated from taking the players' career WAR averaged out with their seven-year peak (seven best seasons, regardless if they were continuous or not). It serves as a good means to judge how a player stacks up to his Hall of Fame brethren and whether or not they are deserving of a plaque in Cooperstown. For additional JAWS information, click on the link above. So without further adieu, my HOF ballot would read…

Jeff Bagwell: One of the most productive first baseman in Major League history, there was little Bagwell could not do. Offensively, Bagwell was an absolute monster. He was a career .297/.408/.540 hitter while playing much of his career in the unfriendly Astrodome. He won the MVP in 1994 and has the fifth highest peak among 1st baseman, ahead of HOFers Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, and Eddie Murray. JAWS has him as the sixth greatest first baseman OF ALL-TIME. Additionally, Bagwell was an underrated defender that ended up 59 runs above average according to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), a number one might not think possible given his physique. Despite his relatively short career (only 15 years), Bagwell's extreme durability (142+ games in 12 of 15 seasons) helped him put up some of the best numbers ever by a first baseman. Despite the whispers regarding his use, the complete lack of evidence gives me no reason not to vote for him. He might not have the shiny 500 home runs (449 career) or .300 average (.297), but Bagwell's overall numbers make him a slam-dunk Hall of Famer in my mind.

Craig Biggio: The other member of Houston's "Killer B's," Biggio was a great player without having any of the "obvious" skills usually attributed to a Hall of Famer. He didn't have light-tower power (291 HR), blazing speed (414 SB or 24 per year), or superb contact skills (.281 career hitter), but Biggio carved out a career as a master of the little things that win ballgames. Biggio hit plenty of doubles (668, 5th most all-time), took his walks (1160), was efficient on the bases (77 % SB success rate), and  played good defense at key up-the-middle positions. The father of sabermetrics, Bill James, even went as far to say that Craig Biggio was the fifth best second baseman of all-time. I might not go as far to say that Biggio was that good, but his overall body of work speaks for itself. Even not considering his 3,060 hits, a landmark number in which Biggio probably stayed too long to obtain, Biggio is without a doubt a Hall of Famer.

Barry Bonds: Strip away Bonds' steroid suspicions and Bonds is clearly one of the two or three greatest players to ever step on the diamond. Bonds' numbers speak for themselves; 762 home runs, 1996 RBI, a .444 on-base percentage, a .607 slugging percentage, 7 MVPs, 8 Gold Gloves, and 158 career Wins Above Replacement (2nd highest career total). The list of Bonds' accolades literally goes on and on and on. I'll admit, it is extremely troubling to see Bonds hit 73 home runs as a 36 year old, while outpacing his previous career high by 24 in the process. It is extremely troubling to see a 39 year old to have a .609 on base percentage and .812 slugging percentage when a player's bat speed and eye should be slowing. It is extremely troubling to see Bonds win two batting titles after the age of 37. I cannot express enough how much I have wrestled with Bonds' and Clemens' Hall of Fame candidacy. It pains me to think that I am rewarding cheating and that Bonds gained such an unfair advantage in his late 30's. However, Bonds' candidacy is just too great for me for me personally. The goal of the Hall is to "Preserve History, Honor Excellence, and Connect Generations." What kind of Hall would it be without having one of the greatest individual talents of all-time? Ultimately, Bonds' legacy and talents outweigh the steroid allegations, and would get my Hall of Fame vote. 

Roger Clemens: As with Bonds, Roger Clemens, minus the PED cloud, is among the greats at his position. Clemens is among the all-time greats in wins (354), Win Probability Added (1st all-time), ERA+ (143), and strikeouts (4,672 K's, 3rd all-time). Clemens' case would normally be clear-cut but will almost certainly not see a first-ballot induction due to his alleged steroid use. Pretty much the same argument for Bonds, Clemens' career record as an all-time great, even with the steroid ties, would be good enough to get my vote.

Edgar Martinez: As the greatest true DH of all-time, Martinez made up for his nonexistent defensive value by flat-out raking for 18 seasons. He was a career .312/.418/.515 hitter with two batting titles and was arguably the best pure hitter for the excellent late 90's, early 2000 Mariner teams (teams that had Griffey, Rodriguez, and Buhner). Although he was not a huge home run hitter (309 career HR), he hit plenty of doubles (514) and his career OPS+ of 147 is the same as Willie McCovey, Mike Schmidt, and Willie Stargell. In regards to the whole "DH not being a position argument, I view it the same way I view closers. It is a specialized position and one that requires an immense talent to be Hall-worthy. Sports Illustrated's Jay Jaffe, brought up an excellent example to this argument with Mariano Rivera. Pretty much he said it was very possible Rivera would never have the career he has had if he were a starter. I feel the same is true for Martinez, but like Rivera, his excellence is too much for him not to be in Cooperstown.

Mike Piazza: How does a 62nd round player become a Hall of Famer? Mike Piazza did just that on his way to becoming the greatest hitting catcher of all-time. The all-time catching leader in home runs, slugging percentage, and OPS+, Piazza's bat clearly is among the elite for those to wear the tools of ignorance. His peak ranks third all-time among catchers (only behind Gary Carter and Johnny Bench), notwithstanding his defensive shortcomings. Although he always face steroid whispers due to some gnarly back acne, these allegations lack any tangible documentation and really are just whispers. Although some voters will, I think it is extremely unfair to play a guessing game on who used. With that said, Piazza's bat is worthy for me for Cooperstown immortality.

Tim Raines: The second-greatest leadoff hitter of all-time, it baffles me how Raines has failed to get any respect from the voters. With Raines, the conversation has to start with his speed. He stole 808 bases (fifth most all-time) while having the highest success rate of that top five*. He had over 1500 runs scored while playing much of his career with hapless Expos teams and was 100 baserunning runs above average according to Fangraphs' Ultimate Base Running statistic (a total only surpassed by Henderson). His 123 OPS+ and .294/.385/.425 slash is right in line with Hall contemporary Tony Gwynn, even topping Gwynn in times on base, a number which surprises most considering Raines is 536 hits behind "Mr. Padre." According to Jaffe, Raines was the eighth greatest left fielder of all-time while compiling the position's ninth greatest peak; a peak in which Raines' WAR totals were only surpassed by Wade Boggs, Henderson, and Cal Ripken. Although he might not compare well to Henderson, it is not a slight on Raines one bit and his Hall of Fame worthy career is definitely deserving of Cooperstown glory.

Curt Schilling: For starting pitchers, the Hall of Fame has long been exclusive to those lucky enough to have won 300 games in their career. Prior to Bert Blyleven's induction two years ago, it was not since 1991 that a pitcher with fewer than 300 victories claimed enough votes to garner induction (Fergie Jenkins, 284 wins). With the days of specialized bullpens now firmly in place, starting pitchers just are not going to accrue the big time wins numbers as seen from past generations. Although Schilling's 216 win total may be viewed as low, that should not be held against him, especially considering the fact that pitcher wins are a poor judgment of a player's talent level. All else considered, I feel Schilling's case is an easy one to make. He has 3,116 K's (15th all-time), has a higher ERA+ than HOFers Juan Marichal and Bob Feller (Schilling's 127 compared to Marichal's 123 and Feller's 122), and the best strikeout to walk ratio of all-time (4.4 K/BB). Without even mentioning his postseason dominance (11-2, 2.23 ERA, 4.8 K/BB, 2001 WS MVP, and ace on 2004 Red Sox team), Schilling is a fairly obvious Hall of Fame selection in my book.

Alan Trammell: Just last year, Barry Larkin received 86% of the vote and gained induction into the Hall of Fame. However, Alan Trammell, a player with similar numbers, is on the ballot for his twelfth year, never receiving more than 37% of the vote. Trammell, along with double play mate Lou Whitaker, was the backbone of the successful Tigers teams of the 80's and with extremely steady play at arguably the most vital position on the field. Trammell ranks as the eleventh greatest shortstop of all-time going by JAWS, ahead of Hall of Famers Barry Larkin, Joe Cronin, and Pee Wee Reese. Trammell finished his career with a relatively unimpressive .285/.352/.415 slash line and 185 home runs, but played much of his career in unfriendly Tiger Stadium and missed out on the offensive surge seen from the Steroid Era. Factor in Trammell's excellent defense (4 Gold Gloves, 22.0 dWAR, +81 runs above average) and his case looks all the more impressive. To further cement his case, Trammell shined during his postseason experiences (11 games) with a .333/.404/.588 line with 3 home runs and 11 RBI, claiming WS MVP honors for the '84 series. To those that do not think Trammell was enough of a "standout" player to be Hall-worthy, Trammell had four seasons in which he topped 6.0 WAR, including one eight win season that should have won him the 1987 MVP over George Bell. All things considered, Trammell's overall body of work is right in line with his Hall of Fame peers and should have gotten him in Cooperstown 12 years ago.

            Tomorrow, I will post a list of players that just did not make my list for various reasons, with a brief explanation regarding each of their candidacies and why they would fall short in my mind. Expect to see Jack Morris, Sammy Sosa, Larry Walker, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, and Kenny Lofton on that list. 

           Once again, feel free to post any comments in the comment section or contact me at [email protected]

 
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Does a Triple Crown and MVP guarantee Miguel Cabrera a first place spot in our rankings?
            The hot corner has long been one of the least talented positions in the history of Major League Baseball. For instance, third base is the most underrepresented position in the Hall of Fame, with only 14 inducted members (catcher is has the second least amount with only 17 HoF members). However, today's game showcases some of the game's best at third base. A position long-defined by power (Mike Schmidt) and defense (Brooks Robinson), many of the game's best flash abilities on both sides of the ball. In the minors, this is especially true with players like Anthony Rendon and Kaleb Cowart, whose multi-dimensional skills make the future for third base quite promising. Even if these talented youngsters do not make it in the majors, third base should be in good hands with players like our number five ranked third baseman...

5. Chase Headley, San Diego Padres

            The sweet swinging San Diegan enjoyed the breakout campaign of the summer, capturing a silver slugger, gold glove, and finished 5th in the National League MVP voting. Prior to this year, Headley was a solid player who would showed the ability to hit for average, get on base, and play solid defense at the hot corner. What fueled his 2012 breakthrough was the drastic increase in power. Headley hit 31 home runs, saw his isolated power increase 100 points, and drove in a league leading 115 runs. What makes this emergence even more remarkable was the fact that Headley played in one of the most extreme pitcher’s parks (PETCO Park). On defense, Headley may not have deserved the Gold Glove awarded to him this past season, but still remains a strong fielder. He was six runs above average according to Ultimate Zone Rating and had the second highest fielding percentage among third baseman. Headley possesses a good amount of tools that allow him to be a threat on both sides of the ball. The only real question is what Headley will show up in 2013? Will he be the player that only hit 4 home runs in 2011 or the one that drove in 116 with 31 home runs in 2012? That remains to be seen and although it will be hard for Headley to repeat his successful 2012, Headley’s offensive improvements should be enough to make him a 4-5 win player.

4. Evan Longoria , Tampa Bay Rays

            Despite missing over 80 games this past season, Longoria remains one of the best in the game. If healthy, I view Longoria as the preeminent third baseman and one of the best players in baseball. Offensively, there is little Longoria cannot do. He hits for solid contact (.289 AVG in 2012, .276 for career), gets on base at an above average clip (.369 OBP in 2012, .361 for career), and hits for good power as well (.527 SLG in 2012, .516 for career). Additionally, like Headley, Longoria plays half of his games in a pitcher's park, which make his numbers look even more impressive. However, Longoria's on-field talents do not stop there as he is a justifiable two time Gold Glove winner (as compared to those that win Gold Gloves with their bat) and excellent defender. He has averaged 14.4 defensive runs saved per year and has consistently been among the league leaders in fielding chances at the hot corner. Furthermore, even though Longoria is not a characteristic "burner" on the base paths, he is an above average base runner according to the Ultimate Base Running statistic (career +9 runs above average). There is little doubt that Longoria is an extremely talented ballplayer but the question with him remains his health. He has missed parts of every season with various injuries and ailments and should be a major concern for a player locked up for $136 million through the 2020 season. However, for the time being, Longoria is one of the best at his position and if healthy, could very well be a 5-6+ win player.

3. Adrian Beltre , Texas Rangers

            Beginning here with Beltre, the next three decisions were extremely difficult, as each player has various strengths and weaknesses. With Beltre, he lacks any obvious weaknesses and is deservedly one of the best third baseman in the game. Defensively, Beltre is one of the best in the game with four career Gold Gloves and double-digit defensive runs saved in every season except for 2005 and 2007 (and in both of those seasons, Beltre still produced above average DRS ratings). Undoubtedly, whether from the eye test or defensive metrics, Beltre is lauded for his defensive prowess. Offensively, believe it or not, is where Beltre falls slightly behind his hot corner counterparts. The main reason for this comes down to his worse on-base skills and home-ballpark aid. This is not to say Beltre is a poor hitter by any means; he rates as one of the best in baseball as exemplified by his .321/.359/.561, 36 HR, and 102 RBI 2012 campaign. But when his ballpark is factored in, his numbers come out slightly worse than his competitors. Additionally, it should be noted that Beltre is the oldest player on this top five list (34) and is most likely to experience age-related decline in the coming years. Nevertheless, Beltre should be a good bet to be a 6+ win player, just as he has been over the past three seasons.

2. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

            Before the torches and pitchforks are raised, what separated the reigning AL MVP from being the top third basemen in the game is his defensive deficiencies. Although the fact that Cabrera moved to third base was admirable, frankly, Cabrera just wasn't very good defensively. He was a -4 run defender going by defensive runs saved and was ten runs below average according to Ultimate Zone Rating. As good as Cabrera was with the bat, his defensive deficiencies definitely cut into some of his value at the hot corner and justify his ranking as the game's second best third basemen (still high praise, by the way).  Offensively, there is not much to say except that Cabrera was a beast with the bat in his hands. Obviously, he won the first Triple Crown since 1967, but his offensive success does not stop with those three statistics. He lead the league in OPS, total bases, runs created, and extra base hits. Additionally, he was third overall in OPS+ (165, which I might add was behind Mike Trout's) and lead the AL in slugging percentage (.606). Overall, Cabrera's one sided-game, as good as it is, just is not enough for the honor of being the best third baseman. Regardless, Cabrera is one of the most consistent offensive performers of our generation and in my mind a slam dunk Hall of Famer barring a complete disaster to the rest of his career. It is very reasonable to see Cabrera being a 6-6.5 win player in 2013.

1. David Wright, New York Mets

            Nowadays, Mr. Met has everything going for him. Owner of a brand-new $138 million contract, Wright stands alone on top of our third base rankings. Wright matches both the offensive abilities of Miguel Cabrera and defensive talents of Adrian Beltre. Defensively, Wright had 16 runs saved and a career low 10 errors in 155 games at the hot corner. Additionally, he had the second highest dWAR total (2.1) for a third baseman in 2012 and was 15 runs above average going by Ultimate Zone Rating. Offensively, Wright may not match Cabrera's exploits in the batter's box, but is no slouch himself. He had a 143 OPS+, .302/.391/.492 triple slash line with 21 HRs and 93 RBI. In addition, he accomplished this in a pitchers park that especially suppresses HR numbers and for the lowly 69-93 Mets. Wright will still be in his prime for the 2013 season (30 years old on Opening Day) and should remain one of the most productive players in the game. It would not be unthinkable for Wright and his multi-faceted game to again be around his 2012 WAR of 6.7 and be a 6+ win player next season.  

Honorable Mention:


Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals
Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee Brewers
Brett Lawrie, Toronto Blue Jays


BY: AIDAN FLYNN

 
State of the Position: 
                What used to be the premier offensive position in the game has lost some of its luster over the past years. Despite the shortcomings of RBI, it serves as a good measure of how first basemen simply are not as good as they used to be. For example, there were eleven 100+ RBI first basemen in 2008 while only four first baseman eclipsed that mark in 2012. Injuries (Justin Mourneau, Ryan Howard), positional changes (Miguel Cabrera), and skill degradation (Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis) have all contributed to the slimming of the first base talent pool. Ironically, despite the talent loss, first base has become among the best paid positions in baseball. Lucrative contracts to Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Joey Votto have all contributed to this fiscally irresponsible splurge. As for the future of the position, only one first baseman (Jonathan Singleton) qualified for BTP's Top 100 list. One thing going for first base is that as players from other positions continue to age, many will pick up a first baseman's mitt to play the least physically demanding position in the game. This trend has already gained momentum as more and more catchers (Joe Mauer, Buster Posey) play the "cold corner" to save their legs and to keep their bat in the lineup. Anyhow, below is BTP's top 5 first baseman in the game today.

5. Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers

                The centerpiece of the mid-summer blockbuster between the Red Sox and Dodgers, Adrian Gonzalez remains one of the best first baseman in the game. However, Gonzalez enters the 2013 season not without questions about his own offensive abilities. He batted a solid, yet unspectacular, .299/.344/.463 with 18 home runs and 108 RBI as 2012 saw his walk rates and power numbers take significant hits. For example, from 2006-2011, Gonzalez averaged 31 HRs, 88 walks, 144 OPS+ (only 116 this year), and a .297/.380/.520 triple slash line. Additionally he saw his normally excellent walk rate decline substantially from 10.4% to a below average 6.1%. So while 2012 would be a good season for most, it fell well below his usual standards. Defensively, he continued to excel as one of the best fielders at his position with 15 defensive runs saved and a 17 runs above average according to Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). In order for Gonzalez to remain a top 5 first baseman, he needs to reverse the aforementioned batting trends that plagued him in 2012. His track record is what made him so appealing to the Dodgers when  he was first acquired. He is familiar with NL West after playing much of his career in San Diego, and it is certainly plausible to see his numbers return to pre-2012 heights. I expect him to be about a 3.5 win player in 2013.

4. Adam LaRoche, Washington Nationals (currently a free agent)

                One of the major pieces of the National League Eastern Division Champions, Adam LaRoche had a career year in his age 32 season. For much of his career, LaRoche has provided decent offense with decent defense but took his game to new heights in 2012. He hit a career high 33 HRs, had a 128 OPS+, and hit a solid .271/.343/.510. Add in solid glove work that resulted in his first career Gold Glove, and LaRoche's impressive package of skills has set himself up beautifully for a big contract this offseason. However, like Gonzalez, LaRoche also has several questions . Can he repeat his career year or is his career year just that? Will his age (32 years old) factor into any future decline? That remains to be seen, but LaRoche's productive 2012 showed that he deserves to be recognized as one of the game's best at his position. I actually expect LaRoche and Gonzalez to have similar seasons so a 3.5-4 win season should not be too far out of reach.

3. Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

                One year into the third largest contract of all-time, Albert Pujols produced career lows across the board. What validates his ranking as the third best first baseman in the game is that Albert Pujols' poor play is still better than most players' best performance. He hit 30 HRs, drove in 100 runs, had a very respectable .285/.343/.516 slash line, and had a 141 OPS+. In addition, he had eight defensive runs saved to go along with his reputation as one of the best defenders at his position. However, his disturbing declines in every important offensive category have left concern in Pujols' future. His walk rate has dropped below average, his strikeout rate is the highest since his rookie year, and he had the lowest HR/FB rate of his career. While Pujols remains a solid hitter and fielder, gone are the days when Pujols reigned as the game's best player. Perhaps I am overstating his decline a bit but I foresee 2013 to be more comparable to 2012 than any year from his prime. He had 4.6 WAR last year and should be 4.5-5 win player next season.

2. Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers                                                                                                                 

                The offseason's second biggest signing had one of the biggest immediate impacts, as Fielder helped justify his hefty contract by  the Tigers to their first pennant since 2006. Fielder provides some of the best offensive production in the league and has an excellent blend of hitting for average, power, and ability to get on base. For example, Fielder had a .313/.415/.528 with 108 RBI in 2012 batting behind league MVP Miguel Cabrera. Although his slugging percentage and power numbers (30 HRs, lowest total since rookie season) did take a bit of a hit coming to Detroit, Fielder still managed a 152 OPS+, good enough for third in the league. Defensively, he lacks what Gonzalez, LaRoche, and Pujols bring to the table and is a below average defensive player. Yet, his offensive ability makes up for his defensive shortcomings and I just simply have more confidence in his offense compared to the others heading forward. He should once again be around a 4.5-5 win player in 2013.

1. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

                The 2010 NL MVP had another extremely productive season in an injury shortened 2012 campaign, which was good enough for BTP to name him as the game's top first baseman. He lead the league in OBP (.474!) to go along with a .337 average, .567 slugging percentage, 44 doubles, and a 174 OPS+. His patience at the plate is unmatched (94 walks) with the only complaint of Votto's game being that he did not hit for a lot of power in 2012 (only 14 HRs). However, Votto has hit for good power in the past and his outage could simply be a result of the knee problems that caused him to miss 48 games. Defensively, Votto saved 9 runs and was 6.5 runs above average according to ultimate zone rating. Heading into his age 29 season, Votto should be experiencing his prime in the coming years. Votto has every desirable trait from a face of the franchise first baseman and assuming good health, could have a MVP caliber season in 2013.

Honorable Mention: 


Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
Allen Craig, St. Louis Cardinals
Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks

 
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Matt Wieters
   To start our Positional Rankings, here are the top 5 backstops in baseball. Feel free to post comments regarding the lists. We appreciate the feedback and enjoy the rankings.

5: Matt Wieters (Baltimore Orioles)

                The young phenom out of Georgia Tech has developed himself into a very good and consistent player at the major league level.  He’s been, and will continue to be, a very important center-piece to the success of the Baltimore Orioles.  Entering his fifth big league season, Wieters has been able to stay healthy as he has played at least 130 games each of the last three seasons.  His career slash line sits at a very respectable .260/.328/.421.  His home run power has been consistent the past 2 years with 22 and 23 in 2011 and 2012 respectively.  His batting average took a dip down to .249 in 2012, however he was able to walk 60 times which is his career high.  He also managed an OPS+ of 107 after posting a 110 OPS+ in 2011.  Wieters has played very well behind the plate (knew I had to throw that phrase in there somewhere) with an total zone runs of 7, 10 and 9 for each of the past three seasons respectively.  He has also improved his caught stealing percentage each year, throwing out 39% of runners in 2012.  Wieters enters his prime years in 2013 and I predict that he improve in 2013.  Look for him to be a 3.5-4 win player next season. 

4: Miguel Montero (Arizona Diamondbacks)

                The 28 year old Diamondbacks backstop has put together back to back very solid (nearly identical) seasons.  Montero has been sturdy the past two years as well, playing in at least 140 games each year.  He is coming off an impressive slash line of .286/.391/.438 with an OPS+ of 120 in 2012.  His home run power tends to sit in the mid-teens with 16 in 2009, 18 in 2011 and 15 a year ago.  One thing that noticeably improved for Miguel in 2012 was his plate discipline.  He worked 73 walks last year with his previous career high at just 47.  He did however strikeout 130 times, going over the 100 mark for the first time in his career.  Overall his offensive production is very solid for anyone, and well above average for a catcher.  Defensively, he has been terrific and amongst the league’s best.  He has thrown out 32 runners each of the last 2 seasons.  His caught stealing percentage is 40% and 42% in 2011 and 2012 respectively.  His total zone rating has also been solid the past 2 years at 10 and 8 runs above average, respectively.  He also was a well above average pitch framer going by Mike Fast's catcher framing data. When the whole package is put together, Montero should be about a 4 win player in 2013 as his consistency with the bat and glove has been a big key for him. 

3: Joe Mauer (Minnesota Twins)

                Joe Mauer has been one of the best players in the game throughout his 9 year career, winning 3 batting titles and partaking in 5 all-star games.  The number one overall selection out of high school in the 2001 draft is still just 29 years old as he heads into 2013. Mauer has been one of the best in the business at getting on base with a career OBP of .405.  After an injury plagued 2011, Mauer bounced back and had a typical Joe Mauer all-star season in which he hit .319/.416/.446 with an OPS+ of 141.  With consistency becoming a theme with these catchers, Mauer has been just that throughout his career.  He has been able to stay on field (with 2011 being one exception), has batted over .300 in all but 3 of his 9 years and has never hit below .287.  In addition his OBP has never dipped below .360 (2011) in a single season, and has been over a 100 OPS+ in every season.  Mauer’s biggest campaign came back in 2009 when he won the American League’s most valuable player.  That year he won what we here at BTP believe would be a better Triple Crown option, with a slash line of .365/.444/.587.  He also led the league with a 171 OPS+ and that is all the more impressive considering Mauer’s postion on the field.  Speaking of defense, Mauer has been very solid throughout his career.  He has thrown out 32% of runners in his career.  However, in 2012 he only caught 74 games and spit up his other games at DH and first base.  2012 also marked the first year in which Mauer’s defensive runs saved went under 0 at -6, which possibly hints at future time at first base.  Although Mauer may be slowing down a bit at the catcher position, he is still among the league’s elite hitters in the game which puts him at number 3 on the catcher countdown.  I would expect the Minnesota home grown product to be around a 4-5 win player in 2013. 

2: Yadier Molina (St. Louis Cardinals)

                With Yadier Molina, I think it is appropriate to begin with defense.  The St. Louis backstop established himself as a defensive gem very early in his 9 year career.  During his first full season in 2005, Molina threw out a whopping 65% of would be base stealers.  He is also coming off an impressive season in which he gunned down 48%.  His career defensive runs saved  has amounted to 86 in his career with 36 combined runs saved the past two years. There’s no question Molina’s defensive skills are tops in the game right now, and expect more great glove work from Yadier in 2013.  As for offense, Molina has always been solid for a catcher.  However, in 2011 and 2012 he broke out as an elite offensive weapon for the Cardinals.  In 2012 he batted a career high .315/.373/.501 with an OPS+ of 127.  He was also able to steal a surprising yet impressive 12 bases which is also a career high.  Molina has been impressive in the postseason for the Cardinals as well, leading them to World Series titles in 2006 and 2011.  He has a career .299/.352/.388 line in 63 career playoff games.  Molina had a WAR of 6.7 in 2012, a difficult number to repeat in 2013.  I still expect Molina to be an elite catcher and should be around a 5-6 win player. 

1: Buster Posey (San Francisco Giants)

The number one catcher heading into 2013 is also one of the best players in all of baseball period.  He is just 25 years old and only has 2 1/2 years of experience in the major leagues.  What he has accomplished in that short amount of time, howeve,r is what makes him the game’s best catcher.  He is coming off a well-deserved Most Valuable Player award in 2012 after winning the Rookie of the Year in 2010.  Many people thought it would take Posey a while to become the player he was in 2010 after a horrific knee injury in 2011 that limited him to just 45 games played that season.  His critics were proved wrong as Posey hit .336/.408/.549 with an OPS+ of 172 in 2012.  That knee injury proved to be a non-issue for Buster as he caught 114 games in 2012.  He is an important reason as to why the Giants’ pitching staff was among the league’s best in 2012.  He has never had a negative total zone run total or defensive run saved total in his career as a backstop and has a career TZR of 12 and DRS of 11.  He has also thrown out 33% of baserunners in his career which is above league average (27%). Posey was an All-American shortstop at Florida State, making it all the more impressive that he was able to not only make a transition to catcher, but he was
able to thrive at a young age. It is also not a coincidence that Posey’s Giants won the World Series in both seasons Posey was healthy.  Of course, in his injury year of 2011, the Giants did not even reach the postseason.  Overall, Posey had a WAR of 7.2 in 2012 and look for him to be around that mark again in 2013. 

HONORABLE MENTION:

A.J. Pierzynski (Free Agent, spent 2012 with Chicago White Sox)

Carlos Santana (Cleveland Indians)

A.J. Ellis (Los Angeles Dodgers)


 
             Tuesday night brought the unexpected news of a major blockbuster between the Miami Marlins and the Toronto Blue Jays. Akin to the Red Sox-Dodger deal in August, big names and big money is being moved between the two franchises, and should have huge ramifications for the futures of both teams. Although these consequences will be detailed later in the article, here are the details of the trade: the Toronto Blue Jays will acquire shortstop Jose Reyes, right-handed pitcher Josh Johnson, left-handed pitcher Mark Buehrle, outfielder Emilio Bonafacio, catcher John Buck, and $4 million (Blue Jays will eat the other $167 million remaining on the contracts); the Miami Marlins will acquire shortstop Yunel Escobar, infielder Adeiny Hechavarria, right-handed pitcher Henderson Alvarez, minor league left-handed starter Justin Nicolino, minor league outfielder Jake Marisnick, catcher Jeff Mathis, and minor league right-handed pitcher Anthony DeSclafani .

    The American League East just got even stronger, if you can believe that to be possible.  The Toronto Blue Jays made themselves an instant force with one big blow, landing major talent from the Miami Marlins.  The Jays are coming off just a 73 win season in 2012 and have already let manager John Farrell go to the Boston Red Sox.  However, they have filled 2 gaps in their starting rotation and added a sparkplug shortstop in Jose Reyes.  They have also received catcher John Buck, back for his second go-around with the club, and Emilio Bonifacio.  

    Let's start with the pitching.  Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle are two guys that Toronto can immediately move to the front end of the rotation.  Johnson has the talent to be a legitimate ace and he has shown that ability when he lead the league in ERA and ERA+ (2.30, 180) in 2010.  The big question surrounding Johnson is his health and durability.  He has only managed to throw 200+ innings once in his 8 year career.  He is coming off a decent season in 2012 in which he had a 3.81 ERA and 104 ERA+ in 191.1 innings.  The ability to be a 6+ WAR pitcher is there (2009 & 2010) for Johnson. The only question, once again, is his health and durability.  However, durability is not a question for the other rotation piece Alex Anthopoulos picked up, crafty lefty Mark Buehrle. Buehrle returns to the American League after just one season in the senior circuit and is heading into his age 34 season. He has thrown at least 200 innings in a whopping 12 straight seasons, with his most serious injury being a day-to-day cut from opening a mayonnaise jar.  He has been extremely consistent with his production as well.  He has never had a season with an ERA over 5 and just one season with an ERA over 4.28, with his career mark at 3.82.  He also has had just one season (4.99 ERA, 95 ERA+) with an ERA+ of under 100.  He will however give up his share of base hits despite tossing 2 career no hitters, one of which being a perfect game.  He averages 234 hits per season.  His command is very good, walking an average of 5.4% of hitters compared to the league average of 8.6%.  When it's all set and done, the Blue Jays should be very pleased with these two additions to their starting rotation.  

     Offensively, Toronto has added some nice pieces as well.  They have added two elite base-stealers to go along with Rajai Davis (40 SBs in 3 of his last 4 seasons).  Reyes is coming off a 40 stolen base season while Bonifacio is coming off a 30 steal season.  There's no question that the Jays now have the ability to cause havoc on the base paths night in and night out.  However, despite this speed and talent, there are some question marks.  With Reyes, he has struggled to consistently stay on the field throughout his career. From 2009-2011 he played in 36, 133 and 126  games respectively.  However he is coming off a 160 game season in 2012, which is a good sign for where his health stand heading into 2013.  Reyes can swing the bat as well, with a career line of .291/.342/.440.  He is also one season removed from winning a National League batting title with a .337 average.  Reyes has great tools as well defensively with a rocket for an arm, however he has struggled to be consistent.  He has committed at least 15 errors at shortstop the past three seasons and has a career defensive runs saved total of -18 runs while coming off his career worst defensive season (-17) in 2012.  He has also had a negative UZR over the past four seasons, with his 2012 mark at -2.8.  As for Bonifacio, the question is getting on base.  He owns just a .329 OBP, which has hindered his stolen base opportunites in the past.  He is coming off a tough year in which he played just 64 games and hit .258/.330/.316 with 30 steals in 33 attempts.  The Blue Jays are hoping Emilio can return to his break-out season of 2011 that saw him hit .296/.360/.393 with 40 steals in 51 tries.  The Blue Jays also were able to snag veteran and former all-star backstop, John Buck.  Buck is a guy who can backup J.P. Arencibia or fill in at DH here and there if needed.  He had the best season of his career back in 2010 with the Jays, finishing at .281/.314/.489 while hitting 20 long balls.  However, he has declined the past two seasons and is coming off a campain in which he hit .192/.297/.347 and 12 home runs in 106 games played.  Considering where the Blue Jays finished last year, their fan base should be very excited to see this trade occur.  Any team who can add Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio and John Buck all in one trade has definitely improved for the upcoming season.  -Nick Rabasco


              What a season it has been for the Miami Marlins. An offseason that provided a state-of-the-art, publicly funded stadium, brand new uniforms, a re-branding of the franchise, star player signings, and the most obnoxious structure in sports sent unprecedented excitement throughout a notoriously poor baseball community. Then, the regular season started. The Marlins went 8-14 in the first month and new manager Ozzie Guillen (hired to appeal to the Hispanic/Latino Miami population) outraged the entire city with his remarks regarding his admiration of Fidel Castro, which resulted in a five game suspension. The Marlins would continue to struggle and finished with a worse record (69-93) than in 2011, despite having a payroll $44 million more in 2012.

            It's clear 2012 was a season to forget for the Marlins, which prompted this major transaction. The two big major league players heading to South Beach are Yunel Escobar and Henderson Alvarez. Escobar, seemingly the model of inconsistency, suffered a horrendous offensive campaign with a 75 OPS+ and whose attitude resulted in a suspension following writing a homophobic slur on his eyeblack. Escobar has flashed his potential before (4+ WAR in 2009, 2011) but with his current makeup issues, one has to wonder if he'll ever return to that level of production. Alvarez, basically a replacement level starter in 2012 (.1 WAR) faced a steep decline from his solid rookie season. His superb K/BB rate in 2011 of 5.00 decreased dramatically to just 1.46 as he saw he BB rate increase and K rate decline. Not necessarily a good sign going forward for any pitcher. At this point, he should just be an innings eater for the Fish.

            Among the minor leaguers the Marlins are receiving include highly-touted outfielder Jake  Marisnick, infielder Adeiny Hechavarria, and lefty Justin Nicolino. According to Baseball America, Marisnick is the team's second best prospect with claims of five tool potential. Although he only hit .249/.321/.399 this year, he has plus speed that he utilizes well in center field. He does have some swing n' miss in his game (100 K's), but his strength should at least allow him to have average power if the average does not come along. Hechavarria is among the best defensive shortstops in the minors, and is adept to making both the routine and flashy plays thanks to his cannon for an arm. His hitting ability remains suspect as his triple-A numbers were inflated by playing in hitter friendly Las Vegas and had just a .645 OPS in the majors. As for Nicolino, he profiles a decent mid to back end of the rotation option for the Fish in the near future. He is the classic soft tossing lefty that hits his spots on a routine basis (a la Jamie Moyer) and pitched very well (2.46 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 8.6 K/9) in high A Lansing.

            However, arguably the biggest prize of all for the Marlins is their newfound financial freedom, saving $160+ million in commitments over the next several seasons. This money could be used to reinvest in the free agent market (something I highly doubt in respect to last year's signings being a complete flop, but still possible) or could be used to lock up talent to long term deals such as 23 year old Giancarlo Stanton (158 OPS+, 5.4 WAR, and league leading .608 SLG). Even that could be in question given Stanton's immediate reaction following the trade, possibly discouraging him from staying in Miami long term. Now normally, trades that dumps unreasonable contracts and are able acquire cheap, young, talent is usually a clear win. Yet, it is not that cut and dry, given the circumstances surrounding the Marlins spending spree last year and the current state of their fan base. After the dismantling of World Series Championship teams and alienation of the baseball community on numerous occasions, 2012 was supposed to be a redemption for past mistakes and failures by ownership. This move only underscores previously ingrained thoughts that the current management group will not allow this team to be successful. Loria's clear ineptitude toward running a franchise has become flat out embarrassing and his continued mistakes have become laughable (unless you are a Marlins fan, my condolences). Don't get me wrong, I completely agree that if mistakes are made and the opportunity arises to wipe that slate clean, take advantage of it. Yet, it seems unlikely that Loria and the front office will reinvest that money into the on-field product given their previous history. At some point, for Marlins fans and just baseball fans alike, this act is getting old. -Aidan Flynn

First Impressions:

Winners: Blue Jays: Toronto was able to add an all-star caliber shortstop, and two very solid pitching options that can fortify an injured riddled rotation in 2013. One concern going forward is the health of both the acquired players and the team in general, but on paper the Jays look to be major contenders for the American League East Division Championship.

Losers: Miami Marlins: Miami was able to hit the reset button, but have basically forfeited the 2013 season and the next several years in general. Lack of trust to reinvest money into the on-field product will have long-term repercussions on baseball in Miami. Do not be surprised if owner Jeffrey Loria is forced to sell the team in the near future. The alienation of the fans and its lack of desire to stay competitive makes this trade a loss for the Fish.
 
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1.      Jurickson Profar, SS/2B, Texas Rangers

2.      Dylan Bundy, SP, Baltimore Orioles

3.      Wil Myers, OF, Kansas City Royals

4.      Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

5.      Taijuan Walker, SP, Seattle Mariners

6.      Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

7.      Xander Bogaerts, SS/3B/RF, Boston Red Sox

8.      Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets

9.      Mike Zunino, C, Seattle Mariners

10.  Trevor Bauer, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

11.  Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins (top picture)

12.  Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians

13.  Tyler Skaggs, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

14.  Miguel Sano, 3B/RF, Minnesota Twins

15.  Javier Baez, SS/3B, Chicago Cubs

16.  Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros (middle picture)

17.  Shelby Miller, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

18.  Nick Castellanos, 3B/RF, Detroit Tigers

19.  Jameson Taillon, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

20.  Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins

21.  Mike Olt, 3B, Texas Rangers

22.  Travis D'Arnaud, C, Toronto Blue Jays

23.  Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins (bottom picture)

24.  Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals

25.  Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Houston Astros

26.  Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves

27.  Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies

28.  Billy Hamilton, CF, Cincinnati Reds

29.  Danny Hultzen, SP, Seattle Mariners

30.  Matt Barnes, SP, Boston Red Sox

31.  Jake Odorizzi, SP, Kansas City Royals

32.  Carlos Martinez, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

33.  Aaron Sanchez, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

34.  Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

35.  Kaleb Cowart, 3B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

36.  Jackie Bradley, CF, Boston Red Sox

37.  Rymer Liriano, OF, San Diego Padres

38.  Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees

39.  Nick Franklin, 2B, Seattle Mariners

40.  Alen Hanson, SS/2B, Pittsburgh Pirates

41.  Jedd Gyorko, 3B/2B, San Diego Padres

42.  Alex Meyer, SP, Washington Nationals

43.  Taylor Guerrieri, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

44.  Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs

45.  Mason Williams, CF, New York Yankees

46.  Robert Stephenson, SP, Cincinnati Reds

47.  Trevor Story, SS/3B, Colorado Rockies

48.  Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

49.  Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres

50.   Casey Kelly, SP, San Diego Padres


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51.  Noah Syndergaard, P, Toronto Blue Jays (top picture)

52. Kolton Wong , 2B, St. Louis Cardinals

53.  David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies

54.  Kevin Gausman, SP, Baltimore Orioles

55.  Kyle Zimmer, SP, Kansas City Royals 

56.  Albert Almora, OF, Chicago Cubs

57.  Matt Davidson, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

58.  Dan Straily, SP, Oakland A's:

59.  Trevor Rosenthal, SP/RP, St. Louis Cardinals

60.  Brian Goodwin, OF, Washington Nationals

61.  Courtney Hawkins, OF, Chicago White Sox (middle picture)

62.  Tony Cingrani, SP/RP, Cincinnati Reds

63.  George Springer, OF, Houston Astros

64.  Allen Webster, SP, Boston Red Sox

65.  Addison Russell, SS/3B, Oakland Athletics 

66.  Eddie Rosario, 2B, Minnesota Twins

67.  Adam Eaton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (bottom picture)

68.  Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins

69.  A.J. Cole , SP, Oakland Athletics

70.  Wilmer Flores, Inf, New York Mets

71.  Max Fried, SP, San Diego Padres

72.  Daniel Corcino, SP, Cincinnati Reds

73.  Zach Lee, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

74.  Chris Archer, SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays

75.  Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Tampa Bay Rays

76.  Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs


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77.  James Paxton, SP, Seattle Mariners

78.  Clayton Blackburn, SP, San Francisco Giants

79.  Yasal Puig, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

80.  Jesse Biddle, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

81.  Delino DeShields, 2B, Houston Astros

82.  Michael Wacha, P, St. Louis Cardinals

83.  Luis Heredia, P, Pittsburgh Pirates

84.  Tyler Austin, OF, New York Yankees

85.  Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (top picture)

86.  Brad Peacock, P, Oakland Athletics

87.  Kyle Crick, SP, San Francisco Giants


88.  Gary Brown, San Francisco Giants

89.  Cody Buckel, SP, Texas Rangers

90.  
Slade Heathcott, OF, New York Yankees

91.  Arodys Vizcaino, RP, Chicago Cubs

92.  Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas City Royals

93.  Yordano Ventura, SP, Kansas City Royals

94.  Jorge Alfaro, C, Texas Rangers (middle picture)

95.  Brad Miller, SS, Seattle Mariners

96.  Bruce Rondon, RP, Detroit Tigers (bottom picture)

97. Max Kepler, OF, Minnesota Twins

98.  Tyler Thornburg, P, Milwaukee Brewers

99.  Miles Head, 1B/3B, Oakland A's

100.  Robbie Erlin, SP, San Diego Padres



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